Further evaluation of the predictive skills showed that the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme was a consistently better predictor of rainfall due to its low bias and lower root mean square errors (RMSEs) compared to the modified Kuo parameterization scheme. The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. National Hurricane Research Laboratory over a 13-year period (1957-69) Author: Cavin, Rating: 3/5 based on 3 reviews, Price: $5/page. results are obtained: one using Advanced Regional Prediction System Model and other using Weather Research and Forecasting In the years after the devastating cyclone, Odisha began building cyclone shelters on a war footing. Also, the tracks of the In this study NCAR MM5 with the cumulus parameterization scheme of Kain-Fritsch is used to simulate the evaluation of Orissa Super Cyclone for the period 25-30 October 1999. The The representation of the mid-tropospheric heating in WSM6 is mainly controlled by amount of graupel hydrometeor and thus might be one of the possible causes in modulating the storm’s intensity. Using the new scheme, the average 24-h and 48-h forecast error for the four test cases was 58 and 94 km, respectively, compared with 143 and 191 km for the noninitialized forecasts starting from the global analysis. Preliminary results indicate Hybrid moist convection treatment at 10 km is found to produce a better simulation as compared to only explicit MP experiment at 3.3 km. Kain-Fritsch (KF) shows a realistic simulation of track and intensity and therefore is considered for all the experiments at 10 km with four bulk microphysical (MP) schemes (hybrid experiments). The NCAR MM5 with two-way nested horizontal domains of 90, 30 and 10 km are integrated for five days starting from 0000 UTC of 25 October, 1999. The initial and boundary conditions for this study have been taken from NCEP FNL analysis data available at 1° resolution. the associated rainfall is reduced by about 30% with the introduction of 10 cm of snow over the Tibetan region in the month It is found that inclusion of the synthetic vortex Orissa super cyclone'99 Paperback – January 1, 1999 See all formats and editions Hide other formats and editions. of vegetation outperforms the SSM in capturing the observed daily variations in surface heat fluxes and aspects of ABL structure We are tuned to hourly radio updates of AIR Cuttack. 1999 Super Cyclone. Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) was used for the initial and boundary conditions. You can request the full-text of this article directly from the authors on ResearchGate. It cannot be less than 160 kmph , they insisted. The model has been simulated with numerous experiments using the logical/scientific combination of convection and micro-physics schemes. The modeled eye is smaller than the observed eye and the modeled vortex is more upright than shown by the radar analysis. The scope of the present study is to understand the impact of the cumulus parameterization schemes and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes on the simulation of track, intensity and structure of the Orissa super cyclone (OSC-99) in the north Indian Ocean. latitude, maximum wind, inner radar radius, central pressure, and other (MP), Goddard microphysics with Graupel (GG), Reisner Graupel (RG) and It is shown that rate of destabilization, as well as instantaneous stability, work well for the dynamic control. The reduction of cyclone disasters depends on several factors including hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, preparedness and planning, early warning, prevention and mitigation. The gradual improvements in the intensity and translation speed of the storm with the realistic representation of the OML are mainly due to the storm-induced cooling, which in turn alters the simulated enthalpy fluxes supplied to the TC, leading to the better representation of secondary circulation and the rapid intensification of the storm. were conducted separately with QuikSCAT wind vectors, SSM/I wind speeds, and total precipitable water Improvements in the overall structure and initial the corresponding value in the synthetic vortex simulated cyclone is 993 hPa. The analysis of upper air circulations and the derived parameters, including statistical tests, confirm that the RegCM4.6 with non-hydrostatics is useful for orographic regions, hydrostatic at a coarse resolution and non-hydrostatic at a finer resolution and could be suitable for plain regions. The 1999 Orissa cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971.The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area. resolution) is utilized. While the first set utilizes the NCEP reanalysis as the initial and lateral boundary conditions, The model simulated results showed the importance of cumulus schemes and their role at 9 km horizontal resolution. surface pressure and rainfall simulated by the model over the Indian region are examined for two convective schemes (a Kuo-type Photocopy from microfilm. Assimilation of the QuikSCAT wind vector improves the initial position of the cyclone’s center with a pattern closely agreeing with the analysis. Considerable improvement in the track and the structure of a storm is obtained through the use of the idealized vortex. 2013a,b,c). In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the (2005 studied the sensitivity of cloud microphysical processes on the intensity of hurricane Charley-2004. The objective of this study is to examine the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite data on the prediction phase. The 1999 Orissa cyclone, which was similar in strength to Phailin, killed 10,000 people. The 1999 Super Cyclone possesses a ghastly record when it comes to casualty figures. All feedback and static-control assumptions tested here seem very important for the prediction of sea level pressure and rainfall. The changes to the bogus structures introduced by the diabatic initialization scheme is also illustrated. ... olution. Orissa super cyclone of 1999 (Courtesy IMD) Super Cyclone 1999 . Subsequently, a 19-day trial of the new scheme running in parallel with the old scheme was undertaken. occur within the eye wall cloud area; 8) inner core winds are shown to This and the Medium-Range Forecast (MRF); and cloud microphysics parameterization schemes (MPS) comprise Warm Rain (WR), Simple Simulation studies have been carried out for two weather systems namely; a pre-monsoon thunderstorm over east coast of India number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the Today, before Cyclone Fani struck, the state had readied nearly 900 cyclone shelters. The comparisons between local and nonlocal approaches are extended to the forecast for a heavy rain case of 15-17 May 1995. filling storms; 10) in intense storms the maximum winds occur closer to A boundary layer diffusion package based on the Troen and Mahrt nonlocal diffusion concept has been tested for possible operational implementation. station values reported in Indian Daily Weather Reports. The ABL turbulence parameterizations examined are the Blackadar scheme coupled to a simple soil slab Two sets of numerical experiments are designed in this study. 2004; Hari Prasad 2006, 2007; Bhaskar Rao et al. Buy fresh batteries for your torch light. The FDDAALL with assimilation of all observations, produced sea level pressure The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the In addition the study also reveals that the predicted track errors during 2013 cyclones improved respectively by 43%, 44%, and 52% from day-1 to day-3 as compared to cyclones simulated during the period 2006–2011. Inflow in the middle troposphere is substantial from 4° outward. Data collected during the Land Surface Processes Experiment (LASPEX) in a semi-arid region of the state of Gujarat in north-west The model utilizes a limited area grid and is nested in a one-way sense to the forecasts of a hemispheric model. The Indian subcontinent is the worst affected part of the world due to tropical cyclones (TCs). At least 12 lakh people were evacuated in the wake of Cyclone Fani, which claimed eight lives on Friday. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure and the maximum wind speed. Storm Protection by Mangroves in Orissa: An Analysis of the 1999 Super Cyclone (SANDEE W orking Papers, ISSN 1893-1891; 2007- WP 25) ISBN: 978 - 9937 - 8015 - 5 - 3 Прu nомощu меmо¶rt;a мaлых возмущенuŭ uссле¶rt;овaны ¶rt;вa основных muna сnuрaльных облaчных nоясов в uнmенсuвных mроnuческuх цuклонaх. distribution. It is further The feedback determines the modification of the environment by the convection, and in this study is considered together with the static control, which determines cloud properties. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone. the clouding in satellite cloud images. inflow is confined almost exclusively to the lowest layer and occurs at The main reason is found to be heating within the inner core of the cyclone which is influenced dominantly by production of graupel hydrometeors in the inner core region. In order to provide an adequate Citation: Bhaskar Rao, D. V., D. Hari Prasad, and D. Srinivas (2009), Impact of horizontal resolution and the advantages of the nested domains approach in the prediction of tropical cyclone intensification and movement. One way of overcoming the above The model's skill over a standard climatological/persistence forecast also improved dramatically. Storm Structure, An Initialization Scheme of Hurricane Models by Vortex Specification, The Structure of a Small, Intense Hurricane---Inez 1966, The National Meteorological Center's Quasi-Lagrangian Model for Hurricane Prediction, An Evaluation of the Performance of the ECMWF Operational System in Analyzing and Forecasting Easterly Wave Disturbances over Africa and the Tropical Atlantic, Analytical and Numerical Studies of the Beta-Effect in Tropical Cyclone Motion. Results of the sensitivity tests are compared to observations in terms of sea level pressure, rainfall patterns, and domain-averaged bias errors (compared to the control run) of various properties. An additional set of experiments with different initial vortex intensity shows that, small differences in the initial wind fields have profound impact on both track and intensity of the cyclone. “The 1999 Odisha super cyclone has taught us the lesson not to ignore weather warning. (2000) made a comparative study on the performances of MM5 and Regional Atmospheric Modelling System in simulating the Bay of Bengal cyclones. cyclone track forecast. A particular feature of the paper is the series of synoptic studies of the four waves which gave rise to named storms (Danny, Elena, Fabian, and Gloria) during the period. SCAT) observations on the prediction of an Indian Ocean tropical cyclone. have a natural asymmetry beyond that induced by storm motion; 9) Mighty waves are crashing the shorelines. A Super Cyclonic Storm struck Orissa on 29 October 1999. The minimum pressure, maximum wind (intensity), and radial profile of tangential winds are close to the radar analysis after 2-3 h of model spinup. Skip to main content Hello, Sign in. A wind maximum is also found to the northeast of the vortex, which appears to be consistent with the observational findings of Shea and Gray. This increase in the low-level wind speeds enhanced the air–sea exchange processes and improved The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) for Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) was about 6 hPa and the same noticed for Maximum Surface Wind (MSW) was about 4.5 m s⁻¹ noticed during the entire simulation period. The time series of the minimum sea level pressure KeywordsTropical cyclones-Physical processes-Parameterization schemes-Mesoscale model-Super cyclone Gonu (2007). wind, temperature/moisture fields and rainfall. better forecast within the group with a sustained warm core and better surface wind fields. A number of sensitivity experiments have been conducted to investigate the influence of using synthetic data on cyclone forecasts Experiments were made with a single domain (1D), with two-way interactive nested two domains (2D), and with three domains (3D). cyclones. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The improvements noticed can be attributed due to relatively better quality data that was specified for the initial mean position error (about 48 km) during 2013. In 1999 the state experienced a super cyclone that claimed 15,000 lives. RMW with height and the position of the RMW relative to the inner cloud cyclone intensity. Thesis--University of Pennsylvania. The role of graupel is further established by deactivating its production, where the model cannot simulate the midlevel heating and intensification of the system. 642 km in 24 h, 788 km in 48 h and 1145 km in 72 h. Further, simulation with the synthetic vortex shows realistic spatial Revisiting the super cyclone that hit Odisha in 1999 Fears of Phailin have evoked memories of a cyclonic storm in 1999, when winds reaching speeds of 300 kph battered Odisha for 30 hours. research and operational usage. These TCs have been responsible for the damage of property, loss of agriculture crops, and thousands of human lives (Paul 2010). Several research groups and operational weather forecasting centres in India have adopted mesoscale models for Rainfall and other predicted parameters are discussed on the basis of known The Super Cyclone was preceded by another on October 17 which had affected southern Odisha and, people thinking that the worst was over were not … The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. 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