It continues over the heliport. The Kashmir earthquake of 2005, perhaps the deadliest shock ever to strike South Asia, left hundreds of thousands of people exposed to the coming winter weather. FREDERICK BLUME: It looks like the water took out the drywall about halfway up the second floor. Veteran journalist Callum Macrae sets off along the coast to discover how far reaching the tsunami's damage is. NARRATOR: Many scientists now believe the real answer to the earthquake threat lies in engineering, not geology. The crew is lucky to survive. So, the quake was still going on when we got our page. CHRIS GOLDFINGER: If there's not much to slow it down...and because the wavelength of the tsunami is so big, it's not going to stop unless, until it reaches something, reaches some sort of high ground. CALLUM MACRAE: As if Ofunato didn't have enough problems, scientists reckon this whole area, this region, has subsided well over one meter. Now, in fact, there's some suggestion that we may never be able to predict earthquakes with high certainty. NARRATOR: Confusion rules. The city is hit by the western hemispheres deadliest earthquake in a century. CHRIS GOLDFINGER: It was kind of a growing realization that it was just getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and it had to be fairly close. CHRIS GOLDFINGER: It's a little bit like airplane crashes that people go in and try to figure out what happened and to learn form that. KEN CREAGER: ...should be here somewhere. 2006: Yogyakarta, Indonesia: 6.3: IX: 5,700: The Yogyakarta earthquake injured nearly 40,000 people and destroyed or damaged nearly 600,000 homes in the Bantul-Yogyakarta area. People head for higher ground. SHOW TRANSCRIPT. Every few years they slip, with only a slight amount of shaking. ERIC CALAIS: The last earthquake on that fault occurred about 250 years ago. KEN CREAGER: I'm optimistic about the future. You are just in front of a bulldozer, moving the entire town. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. But you know, if you have a pan in the oven, you shut the oven off, and the pan has been in there for an hour, and you go and grab it with your hands, you are going to get burned, because the oven continues to heat inside, even after you have turned it off. One hundred miles north of Cannon Beach, scientists are finding traces of a new type of super-deep earthquake, one that may help revolutionize earthquake forecasting. And all the mass of the building, fridges, everything in that wall is essentially a debris glacier. Eight hours since the quake: The tsunami wave continues to spread across the ocean. There are no mysteries in this earthquake; we know exactly what happened. It's bad news. Janice Flood Legal Counsel Susan Rosen Associate Producer Post Production Patrick Carey Post Production Supervisor Regina O'Toole Post Production Editor Rebecca Nieto Post Production Manager Nathan Gunner Compliance Manager Linzy Emery Development Producers Pamela Rosenstein David Condon Supervising Producer Stephen Sweigart Business and Production Manager Jonathan Loewald Senior Producer and Project Director, Margret & Hans Rey / Curious George Producer Lisa Mirowitz Coordinating Producer Laurie Cahalane Senior Science Editor Evan Hadingham Senior Series Producer Melanie Wallace Executive Producer Howard Swartz Managing Director Alan Ritsko Senior Executive Producer Paula S. Apsell, Produced by Pioneer Productions For NOVA In Association With Channel 4, © 2011 Pioneer Film and Television Productions Limited and WGBH Educational Foundation, Image (person on bicycle) FRED DUFOUR/AFP/Getty Images. NARRATOR: Many markers are placed in well-built police stations. NARRATOR: Twenty-ten stands out because its earthquakes killed nearly a quarter of a million people. NARRATOR: The recent tragedies are a reminder that despite almost a half century of research, seismologists are no closer to predicting earthquakes. With exclusive footage, NOVA captures the unfolding human drama and offers a clear-headed investigation of what triggered the earthquake, tsunami, and subsequent nuclear crisis. And that's what we're seeing now. The city recently played out a worst-case scenario. RICHARD ALLEN: I do not want to be surprised by the next big earthquake. NARRATOR: The earth-shattering truth behind The Deadliest Earthquakes , next on NOVA. What's even more remarkable is what is says about the size of the tsunami, because the Japan meteorological center just sent out a provisional estimate that the tsunami that hit this was somewhere about three meters high, but we are standing seven or eight meters above sea level here, and even with the surge, the idea it could have carried this boat here, does suggests that the tsunami was much bigger than three meters. NARRATOR: Today, surviving an earthquake comes down to how well you prepare for the worst. Hundreds of thousands are homeless. RICHARD ALLEN: Each of these stations is sampling the ground shaking at 100 samples per second. CHRIS GOLDFINGER: Once the wave starts to pick up part of town, the warehouses along the dock, the debris, then it becomes more like a glacier. NARRATOR: For miles offshore, the ocean is a churning mass of currents. Until seismologists make a breakthrough in prediction, communities must be ready for the unexpected, because the next quake could strike at any time. NARRATOR: The earthquake causes the whole coastline to drop by up to three feet, lowering Miyako's walls and making the tsunami much worse. So, what this is telling you is that the whole coastline jumped up two to three meters. Within seconds, automatic warnings flash across the country. The footage reveals a frequent characteristic of earthquakes: liquefaction. Tremendous pressure builds. Embedded in solid concrete roofs, they survive the earthquake. WOMAN (Tsunami Survivor/Translated): I wanted to find out, desperately, so I came here. NARRATOR: The tsunami easily breaches the coastal defenses. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is part of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), established by Congress in 1977, and the USGS Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) was established by Congress as a NEHRP facility. Seismic activity was within normal levels. You know, I think the chances of us having a large earthquake are very significant. Based on that, the odds of a quake happening here over the next 50 years were estimated to be, at most, one in seven. NARRATOR: With the reactors stopped, there's no power to drive the cooling pumps. So, this is 30 centimeters, more or less like that. It's a fairly gruesome and sad task. There could be a major event in Tokyo, which could be very damaging to this very densely populated region. NARRATOR: Stretching from Vancouver Island to Northern California is Cascadia, a vast and volatile fault line. RICHARD ALLEN: This was built after the Second World War to monitor nuclear tests. But in this darkened, ravaged city, people do their best. Seismic waves race towards shore. NARRATOR: That's almost six feet of stored strain, equivalent to 100 Hiroshima atom bombs. You've got to understand that this whole region is in a very high state of stress and is ready to go. The planet's internal heat moves the huge plates. But here the plates move more than three times faster, at over an inch a year, generating powerful earthquakes. Two years later, his forecast proves accurate. CALLUM MACRAE: The Fukushima nuclear base is about 60 kilometers that way; that's about 38 miles that way. Then, during the quake, a huge slippage takes place. Results are helping revolutionize building designs. NARRATOR: In 2010, massive earthquakes rattle the globe. In exclusive coverage, a NOVA camera crew follows a team of U.S. geologists as they enter Haiti in the immediate aftermath of the tragedy. Transcript. The sea is some 500 meters down there, and yet, up here, we have an extraordinary sight, by any standards. 3272012 52214 pm. GERARD FRYER: Very quickly we realized that this was basically the first big ocean-crossing tsunami that had happened in 40 years. Japan is on the Eurasian plate. TOM JORDAN: One area of extreme concern is Tokyo, the world's largest city. Temperatures quickly rise; water levels drop; pressure builds. (Premiered January 11, 2011). Tsunami drills are a regular feature of life. YUMEI WANG: It can take very large forces. On March 11th, the sirens sound, this time, for real. So you're getting this enormous accumulation of strain, and then you're getting it released, in a matter of seconds, during the earthquake. KEN CREAGER: The signals we're actually looking to try to get out of this are very much quieter than the stomping I'm doing, maybe a thousand times smaller, very, very subtle signals. Cliffs, bays and inlets along the shoreline help determine how a tsunami behaves. Every time the deep plate slips, stress increases on the locked crust above. ERIC CALAIS: The benchmark that we're talking about is this. Several villages have just been completely ruined with no survivors, and the human death toll is obviously going to be up in the tens of thousands when the final count is in. At the base of the cliffs, Bevis notices a white streak, a clue to the quake's sheer power. Four miles below the surface, the Earth is distorting, caught in a vast, slow-motion collision. NARRATOR: But to distinguish one earthquake from another, Goldfinger must probe deeper into each sample. The question is, "Are we prepared?". And then we have to get beyond that as well. The fault itself, from the Dominican Republic all the way to the western end of the southern peninsula of Haiti, is about 300 kilometers long, and it's only a segment of 50 kilometers in the middle that released its energy during the earthquake. Weeks later, cities half a world away, in Chile, are leveled, half a million buildings damaged. It is nearly five hundred times larger than the Haitian tremor. BILL MCGUIRE: I don't think we can ever expect to conquer earthquakes, in the sense that we can predict them to the day and we can cope with them so that no lives are lost and no buildings fall down. NARRATOR: Loosely packed and waterlogged ground near the surface starts to behave like a liquid. It doesn't look like water, it looks like the entire town is flowing, and it is. But in the time they had, there was very little time or opportunity for escape. RICHARD ALLEN: That's where this crucial warning time comes from; the difference between the P-wave and the S-wave. MICHAEL BEVIS: Alright, so here we are looking at this big rock. It's then picking up all the debris, it's picking up cars and things. When the dome collapses back, immense waves race out across the ocean, just three feet high and over 60 miles from front to back. It's like a wall of water that comes in and never goes away. This video, from a hospital near the reactor, reveals the earthquake's power. NARRATOR: An American tourist captures the ground opening up at his feet. If it goes in the deep ocean, tsunami travels very fast, reaching, at times, the speed of a jet aircraft. Just weeks after Haiti, another massive quake. The height and intensity of the wave varies dramatically from town to town, but why? Dr Richard Allen works at the University of California at Berkeley, a college built above the Hayward fault, in Northern California. Forecasting the likelihood of the next Cascadia quake is vital. The wave pulls houses out to sea. There's nothing to stop it moving inland, and so it can move inland six, seven kilometers without being impeded. BILL MCGUIRE: We can't see earthquakes coming. Berkeley's location makes it a perfect place for ShakeAlert, America's first earthquake early warning system. The quake is so violent it accelerates the Earth's rotation, knocking a millionth of a second off the length of the day. A wall of water races toward shore. Around the globe, millions live above active earthquake zones. NARRATOR: Port-au-Prince is not alone in its predicament. Those houses in this part of town look undamaged. Beneath, something is stirring. scanner really revolutionizes how we can look inside the core. The tsunami is 30 feet high, so why did the 30-foot-high walls fail? In the south, some sections have been quiet for over a hundred and fifty years. They've recorded many small earthquakes and are now sifting through a huge amount of data. We can detect it; we can issue a warning before the much slower S-wave gradually comes across and does all of the damage. The tsunami travels faster in deep water and reaches land more quickly. Here in Dichato, the wave reaches the upper floors of buildings. Transcript. Calais came closer than anyone to giving an accurate warning of the quake, but like all seismologists, he had no idea exactly when it would happen. This is a sandy layer left by a megathrust landslide. As 2010 unfolds, more earthquakes strike around the world. CHRIS GOLDFINGER (Oregon State University) : These are, essentially, a deep-sea library. MAN (Miyako Coast Resident): Here it comes! You can see an offset in the trim around the tarmac. First the north, then in the south, then it strikes in the north again. My goodness, nobody stood a chance here. NARRATOR: Haiti lies directly above a network of massive faults, where the Caribbean plate meets the North American plate. GERARD FRYER: As the tsunami spread across the ocean, at location after location, our predictions were pretty darn good. MAN (Miyako Coast Resident): There's a hill outside of town that we're going to try and get to. The first wave of the tsunami didn't affect us, but from the second wave, water started to reach here. The residents of Cannon Beach have a unique plan to keep their heads above water. CHRIS GOLDFINGER: The whole upper plate behaves just like a rubber block. If we constructed properly in most areas of high seismic hazard, then the death tolls would drop dramatically. His challenge is to find out what causes them. As predicted, it's three feet high. We have to live with them; they are a natural phenomena. As it flows in and out, it scours the earth, destroying foundations and undermining buildings. Parts of Cascadia are twice as active as previously thought. Feb. 27, 2010: 700 dead in Chile At least 700 people were killed when a magnitude-8.8 quake struck off the coast of Chile on Feb. 27, 2010. Scientists' understanding of earthquakes and tsunamis saved lives, but as this disaster shows, there is much more to learn. SIMON BOXALL: It's a very intensive wave, but, obviously, as it spreads out, that energy is being distributed along a bigger and bigger circumference. And they have a chilling side effect: tsunamis. For years, the earthquake tremor signals were hidden among vibrations generated by machinery, crashing waves, even the wind in the trees. Casualties are often a function of earthquake depth (shallow quakes tend to cause more damage), population density, and how much punishment buildings and other structures can absorb before they fail. NARRATOR: All of Chile's strong quakes originate off its Pacific coast, so that's where Bevis is looking for evidence. They deposit distinct, identifiable sandy layers. Published 12:00 PM ET, Mon April 27, 2015. NARRATOR: The following day, on the main road back to Tokyo: The artery that connects north and south is empty, a reminder that this country has ground to a halt. Above the hottest zones, molten rock rises and solidifies, creating new crust. markers scattered throughout Haiti to monitor the ground shifting under the island. MAN (Miyako Coast Resident): You hear the sirens. A two is insignificant but a seven or above can be immensely destructive. We don't know when that earthquake or sequence of earthquakes will occur, but they're inevitable. Having even a few seconds to respond could save lives. The Olympic Peninsula, Washington State: These peaceful forests hide a secret. The Hawaii warning team monitored the Japan tsunami across the pacific. No, it's not; it's still going.". FRANK VERNON (University of California, San Diego) : So this is your third drill string here? That's the problem. This busy metropolis is reduced to rubble in less than a minute. TOM JORDAN: We had an exercise that we developed for southern California in 2008. NARRATOR: Though they haven't found it yet, this method of forecasting earthquakes holds promise for the future. In 1812, Tambora volcano in … And you think about how many decades of work we have in front of us, just to get to where the Japanese were. I'm completely stranded now, between the wall and the road. Big quakes are inevitable, but can we lessen their devastation? NARRATOR: These are the finest Swiss-made seismometers. Millions sleep in offices and wait for dawn. What we have in mind is, ideally, to have dozens of these, up and down the coastline, so that all of the low-lying communities with tsunami hazards have these to protect their people. What forces create this epic disaster? WOMAN'S VOICE ( Broadcaster/Translated): Two radioactive substances, cesium and iodine, were detected near the number one reactor on Saturday. ROGER BILHAM: The energy heaves up the seafloor and displaces a huge volume of water that we can see made its way on land and made its way around the Pacific. NARRATOR: At the town of Rikuzentakata, 25 miles up the coast, rescue workers hunt for survivors and discover the dead. It looks like a normal bustling town. It continues all along here, and you can see three feet down. A tsunami is born. With Charlton Heston, Ava Gardner, George Kennedy, Lorne Greene. NARRATOR: Scientists believe Japan's tsunami holds valuable lessons for the U.S. ROGER BILHAM: What is interesting about this earthquake is that it's a template for what may occur on the northern coast of Oregon and Washington. RICHARD ALLEN (Seismologist, University of California, Berkeley) : This is an expansion joint in the stadium, and you can see that it's opened up, as a result of the continual motion on the fault. Hawaii's early warning system gives people time to get away from the coast. With ShakeAlert in place, Californians will be able to take similar evasive action. CHRIS GOLDFINGER (Oregon State University) : We expected it to end after 10, 15, 20 seconds, something like that, maybe a minute, at the most. Humans have been recording earthquakes for nearly 4,000 years. No one is killed, but over the following months it triggers a series of smaller quakes, spreading over the border. Earthquakes generate different types of seismic waves, radiating out faster than speeding bullets. The tsunami picked up everything in its path—cars, houses, warehouses—and just tumbled them relentlessly inland, on and on and on. We are very close to the shoreline, and the lurching motion of the ground, during the earthquake has caused the sub-surface liquefied sands to come belching out on the top. The following table lists the deadliest volcanic eruptions in the world on record according to name, year, number of deaths, and major cause of deaths. If prediction is going to be useful, it has to be 100 percent certain. NARRATOR: But identifying a specific tremor or pressure change that always precedes a major quake hasn't been easy. You can see a car making a run for it out there. In 2010, several epic earthquakes delivered one of the worst annual death tolls ever recorded. Each number indicates a seismic wave 10 times larger than the number below. WOMAN (Controller): Just checking now to radio sound. SIMON BOXALL: The best early warning system people would have had is the fact that there was an earthquake. The tsunami can look like a breaking wave, but rather than receding back it would just keep rushing in. NARRATOR: These movements are a clue to what happened underground. As time goes on, we often find that, you know, one person's noise is another person's signal. If you are right on top of the earthquake epicenter, if it is happening right underneath you, then P-wave detectors are of no use. From japans mount fuji to the sleeping. The earth ruptured nearly a foot along a hidden fault line. The water has to go somewhere, so it goes up, because it is squeezed and funnelled and pushes material—cars—onto roofs, sometimes as high as 50 feet. This is earthquake country. Most earthquakes originate in deep fractures in the crust, miles beneath the surface. NARRATOR: To isolate the signals, Creager uses seismometers that can distinguish strong, deep tremors from weak, shallow tremors. Over a decade, the satellites tracked the ground south of Port-au-Prince creeping east and the ground north of the city creeping west, at fractions of an inch a year. In a New Two-hour Special, Discovery Follows the Biggest Excavation in 100 years, in Egypt’s Valley of the Kings NARRATOR: 3:15 p.m., Japan time: The wave hits the town of Ofunato. NARRATOR: Backup batteries take over to keep the pumps going, batteries with just an eight-hour charge. The long-term consequence of what is happening at Fukushima remains unknown. Right now, the number one and the number five earthquakes of recorded, you know, history, are right here. Any one of these signals could be the clue that a major quake is imminent. The deadliest strike, in Haiti, killed more than 200,000 people and reduced homes, hospitals, schools, and the presidential palace to rubble. Incredibly, it could have been worse. NARRATOR: These images are from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Now we use it for our research. One of the things I'd like to see is what kind of damage, what kind of debris gets left behind by these gigantic tsunamis. The extent of the damage is truly amazing. But around 25 miles down there is a hotter zone. Residents along the Cascadia fault in the Pacific Northwest face the same fate. And it's not that we were afraid to put a date on it, it's that, as a scientist, we can't. Last time a tsunami hit here was half a century ago. NARRATOR: But the clock is ticking. ROGER BILHAM: The coastline goes down, so do all their power intakes, and if they have a gigantic wave coming at them, it's going to short out everything electrical. NARRATOR: But there's no proof that global clustering was a factor in 2010. Natural disasters can be more powerful and destructive than all other forces on the planet. 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